Renewable Energy Series: Solar

It could not be a better time for clean-tech companies, especially those harvesting sun power, to enjoy the market boom for clean energies. Solar Cell/Solar Panel/PV startups like SunTech Power and Sunpower's IPOs have been generating lots of talks and me-too copy-cats. Suppliers of polysilicon, which is used for producing solar cells, are riding the high tide as well since the unit price of polysilicon has been more than tripled in the last two years. However, road for polysilicon based solar ventures are facing harsh competition from disruptive innovations. We already see breakthroughs in both the vacuum deposition CIGS manfacturing platform technology (Miasole) and nano ink based printable CIGS technology (NanoSolar). They are not only cost very competitive, but also quality comparable to/or even better than polysilicon solar technology. Meantime, other disruptive innovations such as Quantum Dots (can utilize 60% sun power)(Edivent) and conductive polymers (Konarka) etc. are going to tightly squeeze current solar technology market in foreseeable future. Even in the polysilicon as feedstock segment, new innovations, such as intelligently using mirrors/fibers to concentrate sun light (Energy Innovations) and intergrated back contact solar cells (Advent Solar), are going to cut down dramatically the demand for polysilicon. It seems that long on polysilicon based solar technology companies is not as sunshine as it appears.

Luck Versus Efficiency: VC investment decomposition

Hearing often lately about small VC fund is likely more agile and disruptive and bigger ones will lose out argument/observations, I am wondering whether there are some studies on the VC fund efficiency model. Are there something else, such as partnership dynamics, spread of the investment focuses over time, intimacy and interactive level of the due diligence process, and relationship versus valuation driven portfolio company management approach etc., playing a much larger and telling role in deciding overall success or failure of a fund or a firm? One thing is certain, some of the behavioral finance phenomena can be explained by capital/market efficiency model.

Hard to believe that VC investments are based on secretive luck. So why my luck is less lucky than someone else luck? I have noticed that firms like KPCB changed its value proposition to RELATIONSHIP. Maybe this is one of the key things that have not been paid much attention in the past?